Early-stage capital for ventures whose outcomes are already written.
Terminal Value Ventures today announced the final close of its second fund, TV-II, with $42 million committed from limited partners seeking asymmetric exposure to predictable outcomes.
The firm will continue its strategy of identifying and capitalizing companies whose market position, team composition, or product direction makes eventual collapse statistically near-certain.
Proceeds from TV-II will be deployed across 12–15 seed and Series A rounds over the next 36 months, with an average check size of $2.8 million.
Collaborative workspace platform. Acquired by competitor for intellectual property only. 14-month run.
Autonomous delivery startup. Ceased operations after regulatory block. Returned 0.4x to investors.
Direct-to-consumer diagnostics. Wound down following class-action litigation. Fund returned capital via insurance.
Terminal Value Ventures maintains that the most reliable alpha in early-stage technology comes from correctly pricing inevitable failure. The firm’s diligence process focuses on identifying structural weaknesses that founders and other investors overlook.
Portfolio construction favors companies with high burn rates, narrow moats, and leadership teams whose prior exits occurred during bull markets. Average holding period before write-down is 19 months.